Fibre based food packaging set to lead the market by 2045

Packaging Solutions

A new study from UPM Specialty Materials and global consultancy Smithers points to changing dynamics in the food packaging landscape, with fibre based materials taking the leading share by 2045, recycling rates climbing toward 37%, and a regulatory landscape where sustainability becomes a strict government mandate.

Fibre based food packaging is on course to become the leading sustainable material by 2045, driven by breakthrough barrier coating technologies, tightening global regulation, and a decisive consumer shift away from single use plastics.

More than 230 global packaging professionals from across the value chain contributed to a collective assessment of the key trends projected to drive sustainability in food packaging by 2045.

According to the survey, respondents see strong interest in fibre based packaging, with its share of the global food packaging market is expected to rise from 37% today to 42% by 2045. Some 71% of respondents expect fibre based packaging to be perceived as the most sustainable solution, citing advances in barrier coatings set to unlock food applications that were previously the exclusive domain of plastics.

‘We are encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand, and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies. Our role is to support customers in this transition with high performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality,’ said Janne Varvemaa, director, products and technology, UPM Specialty Materials.

The study outlines a future in which sustainability becomes a strict government mandate, not a brand differentiator: 71% of those surveyed believe this is likely, and 88% expect it to fundamentally reshape packaging choices. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes and eco modulation fees are projected to become a primary driver of material selection, rewarding recyclable, high performance solutions and penalising hard to recycle alternatives.

Recycling rates are forecast to climb from 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045. Yet challenges remain, with respondents expecting that landfilling and incineration will persist. Outcomes vary significantly by region, with Europe leading in recycling while the US and Asia-Pacific face distinct infrastructure and regulatory hurdles. Overall, the findings underscore the urgency of accelerating innovation and development globally.

‘The evidence is clear that the industry will continue to focus on improving recycling rates and regulations, particularly EPR and eco modulation are directly influencing material choices. Ongoing innovation in barrier technologies is also opening up new applications for fibre based packaging to compete with plastic alternatives,’ said Ciaran Little, vice president, global consulting information division, Smithers.

You can download the full Sustainable Food Packaging to 2045 here